One Hundred Forty Dollar Oil

Oil finished today at $140.21, a record high close.

Copyright (C) 2008 James Michael Brennan, All Rights Reserved

One Hundred Thirty Nine+ Dollar Oil

Oil finished today at $139.64, a record high close.

Copyright (C) 2008 James Michael Brennan, All Rights Reserved

Brooks's "Bush Paradox"

In today's New York Times, columnist David Brooks writes of the "Bush Paradox," where a frequently wrong George W. Bush this time got it right by relying on his instincts (and his own stubbornness), overruling most of his advisers (and most prevailing opinion), and pushing forward with the surge. The results, happily, are an Iraq with dramatically reduced violence compared to pre-surge levels.

Unconvinced, I sent the following brief note to Mr. Brooks:

Is it possible that it wasn't really the surge that actually made the difference, but instead that the violence of necessity burned itself out? That the Iraqis wearied of the destructive al Qaeda and foreign jihadist presence? That with a million or more displaced persons fleeing to Syria and Jordan, and neighborhoods cleansed along sectarian lines, the violence accomplished what it intended and was no longer needed? Since the drop in violence coincided with the surge, it's impossible to answer with any certainty. Sometimes you just get lucky. But it seems that Bush nevertheless remains what he is: a shallow thinker with a proven record of failure and an unwarranted reliance on his "gut."

Copyright (C) 2008 James Michael Brennan, All Rights Reserved

One Hundred Thirty Eight Dollar Oil

Oil finished today at $138.54, a record high close. Oil was up $10.75 for the day, also a record single day rise, and has risen more than $15 over the past two days.

Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate shot up 1/2 percent in May to 5.5 percent, the biggest single monthly rise in 22 years. Not surprisingly, the U.S. stock market buckled under the bad news. The Dow Jones Industrial average gave up almost 400 points, or more than 3 percent.

Copyright (C) 2008 James Michael Brennan, All Rights Reserved