Other presidents understood risk and compexity. A self-aggrandizing Trump doesn't.

I previously wrote about how Trump bragged that he alone among all presidents was willing to do what needed to be done about Iran. Let's call him "Decisive Donald."

I wrote that despite Trump's bluster, including demanding "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" early in the war, the American and Israeli military onslaught was not sufficient to solve the nuclear problem, let alone all the other outstanding issues such as Iran's missile program (which remains substantially intact) and support for regional proxies. In the end we find ourselves, as I put it, "Crawling our way back to Obama's Iran nuclear deal." What a pathetic outcome for a self-aggrandizing president who loves to heap scorn on his predecessors—predecessors who are actually smarter and certainly wiser than he is.

Now we wait for a "Memorandum of Understanding," said to be very near, to be signed. That agreement will lay out the path for further negotiations, which could be difficult and protracted.

An analysis in The New York Times says:

Under any deal, experts say, Iran is likely to agree to a limited suspension of enrichment, and agree that half of its current stockpile of highly enriched uranium will be exported and the other half diluted to a lower level of enrichment. But Iran would still retain its nuclear knowledge and infrastructure, including advanced centrifuges.

That, together with an ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz again whenever it chooses, will give Iran a “card to prevent Israel and the United States from attacking again,” argued Danny Citrinowicz, a retired Israeli military intelligence officer who specializes in Iran. It will also give Iran renewed influence in the region.

“A war meant to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons will be the war that pushed them over the Rubicon,” he said. [my italics -mb]

The piece explains that Iran's previous leadership, which we decapitated, was more cautious than the present leadership, which has emerged in the cauldron of all-out war. Iran has learned that it can absorb a lot of punishment. It has learned that despite being pummeled it can hold the world's energy economy hostage whenever it chooses. It no longer has to worry about provoking attack by the U.S. and Israel, because that attack has now happened. And it has learned (as North Korea has) that possession of a nuclear weapon is the ultimate guarantor of its security, which is the Rubicon that has now been crossed. All these lessons were previously theoretical. Trump has crystalized them.

What Trump has done has been to focus Iran's mind and clarify its interests. Some sort of nuclear deal will likely be negotiated, and it might look like Obama's. That alone will call bullshit on all Trump's bluster. But the Rubicon having been crossed, Iran's incentives are forever tilted in the wrong direction, thanks to this misbegotten war, which has created a new reality.

Good job, Don. 

Copyright (C) 2026 James Michael Brennan, All Rights Reserved

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