All this ... for what?

Current headlines are ablaze with the prospect of renewed all-out war between the U.S. and Iran, to resume after the midterm elections. By now the "escalation trap" about which we were warned is a lived experience, and we apparently aren't finished with it yet.

Trump's short and sweet war has been a disaster of global proportions. Worldwide oil stocks and strategic reserves have been depleted, the world economy has taken a major hit, shortages of helium and fertilizer are serious concerns, inflation has shot up in the U.S., energy (including natural gas) and refining facilities across the Middle East have been ravaged, high diesel prices are hammering American farmers and shippers, U.S. bases in the region have been hit hard (the crucial supply base in Bahrain has been abandoned), 81 U.S. aircraft have been damaged or destroyed, stocks of major U.S. weapons systems are substantially depleted, Ukraine can no longer get Patriot interceptors as a consequence, Ukrainian cities are being ravaged by Russian ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones, Trump has waived sanctions against Russia and has agreed to import Russian diesel into the U.S. (which will help Russia fund its war), the Starlink/Starshield system that Ukraine crucially depends upon has been tampered with, as has essential U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine.

That's not nearly all. The Strait of Hormuz is still not reliably open. Shipping continues to be attacked. Ships actually sink on occasion. As I write this Brent crude is almost $117. The Houthis in Yemen have been stirred up, creating another front in the war, demonstrating how in war things inevitably careen out of control. Oil facilities and airports across Saudi Arabia have been badly damaged. The Houthis threaten an alternative oil shipping route. A third U.S. aircraft carrier is being sent to the Middle East, weakening strategic U.S. interests in east Asia and Taiwan.

And for what? Trump claims all this fury is to ensure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon, but the war has not advanced that goal in the slightest. There's been absolutely nothing to show for all the carnage. There has been no agreement of any sort on Iran's nuclear programs. Iran still retains all its highly enriched Uranium. And so, having made a mess of everything, all Trump can imagine now is more war.

Way back in June I wrote that we were "Crawling our way back to Obama's Iran nuclear deal". By that I meant that the ultimate resolution to the war would be a negotiated deal similar to the one Obama reached with Iran in 2015. That seemed the most likely outcome. The prospect of the U.S. imposing its will on Iran through military action was and remains unlikely.

It's dismaying, then, that even that assessment, which is still worth a read, seems to have been way too optimistic. There is no deal anywhere in sight; just the threat from both sides of even more war. If an agreement is ever reached, it will have come at an extraordinarily high cost.

Can you see why good judgement in a president matters? After a quick success in Venezuela, Trump thought he was on a roll. Iran would fold quickly. With Iran's leadership decapitated, the people of Iran would rise up and take back their country. (In reality what they and we got were even more rabidly hostile leaders.) Trump would be the glorious victor.

Trump had bragged that of all U.S. presidents, only he was willing to do what needed to be done. But events have proven that those presidents were wise, and Trump is very, very stupid. We now have almost eight months of that stupidity on full display.

The stupid Trump actually walked away from Obama's Iran deal in 2017—a deal with which Iran was in compliance. Iran wasn't producing any highly enriched uranium until Trump reneged. U.N. inspectors had access to Iran's nuclear facilities.

All that is now long gone. Trump has made a complete mess of everything. He always does. And we aren't finished yet.

Copyright (C) 2026 James Michael Brennan, All Rights Reserved

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